I tend to think a lot when I have a lit­tle down time.  I was on the plane for work this week and it hit me, that I am not sure h0w I would clas­si­fy what type of an event and how severe it was before I were going to bug out or bug in.  The more thought I put into it the more I am real­iz­ing every sit­u­a­tion has sub­sets of clas­si­fi­ca­tions that make the sit­u­a­tion more rel­e­vant or less rel­e­vant to an indi­vid­u­al’s or fam­i­lies sit­u­a­tion.

We all know about the Home­land Secu­ri­ty Ter­ror Alert sys­tem.  But what about oth­er con­di­tions that affect us at the local lev­el where we are in our own bub­ble of dis­as­ter.  What if we expe­ri­enced some­thing like Hur­ri­cane Kat­ri­na?  The gov­ern­ment has clas­si­fied this, and I have to do more research under what lev­el, but have you thought about how you might clas­si­fy the events for your own rule of thumb going for­ward?  What type of clas­si­fi­ca­tion would you give some­thing that was a destruc­tive weath­er event, and would you return?  Or, would it be an event that you would per­ma­nent­ly bug out from and nev­er return, know­ing you have to put a “plan b” in place.

So my ques­tion is, how are you going to clas­si­fy your SHTF event in the sub­urbs, whether you are bug­ging in or whether you are bug­ging out?  What cri­te­ria are you going to use to clas­si­fy how long to stay away, or how long to stay in, etc.  I have found and have come up with some of the below myself, and want to share it with you so that y0u can deter­mine for y0urself what is right for you.

  • Poten­tial dis­as­ter clas­si­fi­ca­tions and lengths of time they may exist:
    • Green (No impend­ing issues day to day),
    • Yel­low (1–10 days),
    • Orange (11–90 days),
    • Red (90+ days)
    • Black (Per­ma­nent)
  • Poten­tial dis­as­ter clas­si­fi­ca­tions and what they may be (This one came from a sur­vival forum):
    • Nor­mal Con­di­tions, Reg­u­lar day-to-day sched­ules fol­lowed. Prepa­ra­tions are made at leisure.
    • Pre­lim­i­nary Alert Sta­tus, A sit­u­a­tion you’ve noticed is capa­ble of esca­lat­ing into a prob­lem down the road, but it’s just a pos­si­bil­i­ty right now. Stay on your toes.
    • High Alert Sta­tus, Can­cel your plans for the week­end and gas up your vehi­cles. Things could get ugly REALLY fast. Con­tact your team to fur­ther your plans. Stay alert and vig­i­lant.
    • Nation­al or Local Emer­gency in Progress or Imminient, BOV’s loaded and head to your Bug Out Loca­tions. Shel­ters ready to receive team(s), last minute checks on pro­vi­sions, weapons, and fam­i­ly. Close and lock any perime­ter enclo­sures and fenc­ing. bar­ri­cade as nec­es­sary.
    • S has HTF, loss or destruc­tion of local or state infra­struc­ture. Dif­fi­cult to trav­el due to traf­fic jams or dam­age, weapons should be loaded, team respon­ders ready to deploy in defense.  Every­one else hun­ker down and lis­ten to the radio for updates if any.
  • One Soci­ol­o­gist’s pro­pos­al for a dis­as­ter scale to facil­i­tate recov­ery and research:  http://goo.gl/FFHz
  • US DHS Nation­al Dis­as­ter Plan­ning Sce­nar­ios as of March 2006:  http://goo.gl/rPJ7
  • Metas­cale Dis­as­ter is a tem­plate for scal­ing human world­wide dis­as­ters with some sug­ges­tions of caus­es and pre­ven­tion:  http://goo.gl/mcdJ

I am sure there are more out there, but this is help­ing me form a basis for what types of dis­as­ters will keep me away for what peri­od of time.  In addi­tion, I can take what I learn here and add perime­ters to a radius around my BOL and clas­si­fy each region based on the scope and breadth of each dis­as­ter.  This is a real work in progress.

This may also help me with learn­ing to cache sup­plies along routes in bet­ter loca­tions than pick­ing ran­dom spots to cache sup­plies and hop­ing I make it there to get them…

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