Will Vladimir Putin use Tactical Nuclear Weapons in the Ukraine or the United States?

The world holds its breath as the ongo­ing con­flict between Rus­sia, Ukraine, and the Unit­ed States con­tin­ues to esca­late. With the pos­si­bil­i­ty of Russ­ian Pres­i­dent Vladamir Putin using tac­ti­cal nuclear devices on the Ukraine or the Unit­ed States, the fear of a nuclear con­flict has become a real pos­si­bil­i­ty. Putin is known for his unpre­dictable and often aggres­sive behav­ior, so it is dif­fi­cult to pre­dict what his next move may be. So the ques­tion remains: will Vladamir Putin use tac­ti­cal nuclear devices on the Ukraine or the Unit­ed States? To answer this ques­tion, it is impor­tant to look at the moti­va­tions and capa­bil­i­ties of Putin and his allies, as well as con­sid­er the impli­ca­tions of a nuclear con­flict.

What is the Conflict Between the US, Ukraine, and Russia?

Unless you have been liv­ing under a rock for the last 10 or so years, and not pay­ing atten­tion to geopo­lit­i­cal pol­i­tics, the con­flict between the US, Ukraine, and Rus­sia has been ongo­ing since 2014 when Rus­sia annexed the Crimean penin­su­la. This move sparked a civ­il war in Ukraine which has tech­ni­cal­ly been ongo­ing ever since, with both sides suf­fer­ing ongo­ing casu­al­ties. 

Rus­sia has been pro­vid­ing sup­port to sep­a­ratist forces in the area, and the US and Ukraine have been pro­vid­ing sup­port to the gov­ern­ment-backed forces. The US has also been impos­ing sanc­tions on Rus­sia in response to their aggres­sion, includ­ing the expul­sion of Russ­ian diplo­mats and the seizure of Russ­ian assets.

This has raised fears of a poten­tial inva­sion, prompt­ing the US and Ukraine to strength­en their defens­es. The US has also increased its mil­i­tary pres­ence in the region in response to the increased Russ­ian activ­i­ty.

What are Putin’s Motivations and Capabilities

Putin’s moti­va­tions for using tac­ti­cal nuclear devices on the Ukraine or the US are unclear. While the threat is ongo­ing, it “seems” real.  It is pos­si­ble that he is seek­ing to gain greater con­trol over the region and to weak­en the US’s influ­ence. He may also be try­ing to deter poten­tial US or NATO inter­ven­tion in the con­flict by demon­strat­ing his will­ing­ness to use nuclear weapons.

Putin has access to a large range of tac­ti­cal nuclear weapons, includ­ing cruise mis­siles, short-range bal­lis­tic mis­siles down to brief­case sized dirty bombs. The mis­siles have a range of up to 600 miles, mak­ing them capa­ble of reach­ing both Ukraine and the US. Putin also has access to air-launched mis­siles and tor­pe­does, though these have a much short­er range. Dirty bombs on the oth­er hand can be car­ried in an incog­ni­to fash­ion whether in a car or in a large sized back­pack or suit­case.

The Implications of a Nuclear Conflict

The use of tac­ti­cal nuclear devices would have far-reach­ing impli­ca­tions for the region and the world. It could lead to mas­sive destruc­tion and loss of life in Ukraine and the US, as well as in oth­er coun­tries in the region. It would also cause severe eco­nom­ic dam­age, as the US and Ukraine are both major glob­al eco­nom­ic pow­ers.

The use of nuclear weapons would also have a long-term impact on inter­na­tion­al rela­tions. It could lead to a break­down in diplo­mat­ic rela­tions between the US and Rus­sia, as well as between Rus­sia and oth­er coun­tries in the region. This could also lead to a new arms race, as coun­tries seek to pro­tect them­selves from poten­tial nuclear attacks, not to men­tion a more “offi­cial” launch of World War III than the WWIII proxy war we are fight­ing today.

US and Ukraine’s Response

The US and Ukraine have tak­en a num­ber of steps in response to the increas­ing Russ­ian aggres­sion. The US has imposed numer­ous eco­nom­ic sanc­tions on Rus­sia and its allies, as well as pro­vid­ing mil­i­tary sup­port to Ukraine. The US has also deployed troops and equip­ment to the region, as well as increas­ing its mil­i­tary pres­ence in the region.

Ukraine has also tak­en steps to pro­tect itself, includ­ing boost­ing its mil­i­tary capa­bil­i­ties and increas­ing its defens­es, as we have seen Zelen­syy demand­ing and beg­ging for addi­tion­al arma­ments and equip­ment from the glob­al geopo­lit­i­cal com­mu­ni­ty to attempt to keep Rus­sia at bay.  

The coun­try has also sought to build alliances with oth­er coun­tries in the region, such as Poland and Roma­nia, in an effort to deter Russ­ian aggres­sion.

How Likely Is It That Putin Will Use Tactical Nuclear Devices?

It is dif­fi­cult to say how like­ly it is that Putin will use tac­ti­cal nuclear devices on the Ukraine or the US. There are a num­ber of fac­tors that could influ­ence his deci­sion, includ­ing his moti­va­tions, the capa­bil­i­ties of his allies, and the impli­ca­tions of a nuclear con­flict.

If the US and Ukraine take strong mea­sures to defend them­selves, it could deter Putin from using nuclear weapons. This could include increas­ing their mil­i­tary pres­ence in the region, impos­ing eco­nom­ic sanc­tions, and form­ing alliances with oth­er coun­tries. The effect of sanc­tions on Putin’s deci­sion is also uncer­tain. Sanc­tions have had a lim­it­ed impact on Putin’s behav­ior in the past, and it is unclear whether they would have any effect on his deci­sion to use tac­ti­cal nuclear devices.

The Role of International Institutions

Inter­na­tion­al insti­tu­tions such as the Unit­ed Nations and NATO could also play a role in deter­ring Putin from using nuclear weapons. In fact, you could say that NATO may be the rea­son Putin has not insti­tut­ed use of tac­ti­cal nuclear weapons already in the Ukraine.  That said, these insti­tu­tions could impose addi­tion­al sanc­tions on Rus­sia, as well as call for diplo­mat­ic nego­ti­a­tions and medi­a­tion. This could also anger Putin fur­ther and push him in a direc­tion no one wants him to go in his deci­sion mak­ing… They could also pro­vide mil­i­tary sup­port to Ukraine, and call for a peace­ful res­o­lu­tion to the con­flict.  It remains to be seen. 

The inter­na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty could also pres­sure Putin to back down from the con­flict, by appeal­ing to his sense of nation­al pride and patri­o­tism. This could involve high­light­ing the poten­tial eco­nom­ic and polit­i­cal costs of a nuclear con­flict, and mak­ing it clear that the use of nuclear weapons would be a last resort.  It’s hard to say, as he seems to have a lot of pub­lic sup­port behind him that keeps his ego going in a destruc­tive direc­tion.

The Potential Consequences of a Nuclear Conflict

A nuclear con­flict between the US, Ukraine, and Rus­sia would have dev­as­tat­ing con­se­quences. It could lead to a mas­sive loss of life, as well as severe eco­nom­ic and envi­ron­men­tal dam­age. It could also lead to a break­down in inter­na­tion­al rela­tions, as coun­tries seek to pro­tect them­selves from fur­ther nuclear attacks and inva­sions.  

A nuclear con­flict could also have a long-term impact on the region, seek­ing real estate not affect­ed by nuclear radi­a­tion for crop growth, etc. as coun­tries seek to rebuild their economies and their diplo­mat­ic rela­tions. This could take many years, if not decades, and could have a sig­nif­i­cant impact on glob­al secu­ri­ty.

Alternative Solutions to the Conflict

The use of nuclear weapons should always be a last resort. Peri­od.  There are a num­ber of alter­na­tive solu­tions to the con­flict that could be explored, such as diplo­mat­ic nego­ti­a­tions, eco­nom­ic sanc­tions, and mil­i­tary sup­port for Ukraine.

Diplo­mat­ic nego­ti­a­tions could be used to try and reach a peace­ful res­o­lu­tion to the con­flict, but we seem to keep feed­ing the beast. This could involve direct talks between the US, Ukraine, and Rus­sia, as well as talks involv­ing oth­er coun­tries in the region. Eco­nom­ic sanc­tions could also be used to pres­sure Putin to back down from the con­flict. This could involve the US and oth­er coun­tries impos­ing sanc­tions on Rus­sia and its allies. 

Final­ly, mil­i­tary sup­port for Ukraine could be pro­vid­ed by the US and oth­er coun­tries. This could involve pro­vid­ing mil­i­tary equip­ment and train­ing to the Ukrain­ian mil­i­tary, as well as increas­ing the US and NATO pres­ence in the region.

Conclusion

It is impos­si­ble to pre­dict whether Vladamir Putin will use tac­ti­cal nuclear devices on the Ukraine or the US. There are a num­ber of fac­tors that could influ­ence his deci­sion, includ­ing his moti­va­tions, the capa­bil­i­ties of his allies, and the impli­ca­tions of a nuclear con­flict. It is also unclear how effec­tive eco­nom­ic sanc­tions and oth­er mea­sures will be in deter­ring Putin from using nuclear weapons. He does not seem to be deterred by eco­nom­ic sanc­tions, and deter­mined to take the Ukraine.

It is impor­tant that all sides attempt to work togeth­er to seek a peace­ful res­o­lu­tion to the con­flict. This could involve direct nego­ti­a­tions, eco­nom­ic sanc­tions, and mil­i­tary sup­port for Ukraine. 

It is also impor­tant that inter­na­tion­al insti­tu­tions such as the Unit­ed Nations, which is large­ly inef­fec­tive, and NATO, also par­a­lyzed cur­rent­ly, play a role in resolv­ing the con­flict, and that the poten­tial con­se­quences of a nuclear con­flict are high­light­ed. 

Only then can the pos­si­bil­i­ty of a nuclear con­flict be avoid­ed.