In recent years, the world has wit­nessed a num­ber of geopo­lit­i­cal ten­sions that threat­en to esca­late into full-blown con­flicts. With the Unit­ed States at the edge or involved polit­i­cal­ly with regard to many of these ten­sions, many of us  are won­der­ing whether we are on the brink of a nuclear war with Rus­sia, Chi­na, and the Mid­dle East. The stakes are high.  Most recent­ly the Ira­ni­ans con­tin­ue to deny they are enrich­ing ura­ni­um.  And the con­se­quences of such a con­flict with any one of the afore­men­tioned coun­tries would be cat­a­stroph­ic for the entire world. I’ve been try­ing to close­ly fol­low the ongo­ing ten­sions between the Unit­ed States, Rus­sia and the Ukrain­ian, Chi­na want­i­ng to lead in strength and pow­er, and the mid­dle east­’s race to become a nuclear pow­er…  I’m going to try to pro­vide you with an unbi­ased analy­sis of the cur­rent state of affairs, based on what I see and read in my lim­it­ed time between work, think­ing about what to write, rais­ing a 6 year old kid­do prep­per, and bal­anc­ing fam­i­ly. So, let’s dive into the facts and explore whether the Unit­ed States is tru­ly on the brink of a nuclear war with Rus­sia, Chi­na, and the Mid­dle East.

Understanding the Current Geopolitical Tensions (high level)

The cur­rent geopo­lit­i­cal ten­sions between the Unit­ed States, Rus­sia, Chi­na, and the Mid­dle East are com­plex and mul­ti­fac­eted. There are many fac­tors at play, includ­ing ter­ri­to­r­i­al dis­putes, eco­nom­ic com­pe­ti­tion, ide­o­log­i­cal dif­fer­ences, and his­tor­i­cal griev­ances. In recent years, these ten­sions have been exac­er­bat­ed by a num­ber of fac­tors, includ­ing the rise of nation­al­ism, pop­ulism, and author­i­tar­i­an­ism around the world, as well as the increas­ing influ­ence of new tech­nolo­gies like social media and cyber war­fare.

At the heart of these ten­sions is a strug­gle for pow­er and influ­ence on the glob­al stage between the four coun­tries. The Unit­ed States has long been the dom­i­nant super­pow­er, but in recent years, Rus­sia and Chi­na have emerged as major rivals. The Mid­dle East, mean­while, remains a volatile region with a long his­to­ry of con­flict and insta­bil­i­ty.  It’s no secret regard­less of the side of the polit­i­cal isle you are on, if you are pay­ing atten­tion the Unit­ed States is los­ing ground as a super­pow­er, quick­ly.

Despite the grow­ing ten­sions, it’s impor­tant to note that not all of these coun­tries are ene­mies of the Unit­ed States in the tra­di­tion­al rival­ry sense.  In fact, there are many areas of coop­er­a­tion and col­lab­o­ra­tion between the US and its rivals.  Unfor­tu­nate­ly those rela­tion­ships are strained, and the par­ties are some­what inter­de­pen­dent upon each oth­er. Some of these areas of coop­er­a­tion are increas­ing­ly over­shad­owed by the more con­tentious issues, and the risk of con­flict con­tin­ues to grow.

The Role of Nuclear Weapons and Their Impact

One of the most con­cern­ing aspects of the cur­rent ten­sions is the role of nuclear weapons. The Unit­ed States, Rus­sia, and Chi­na are all nuclear pow­ers, and the Mid­dle East is home to a num­ber of coun­tries with nuclear ambi­tions, which will come to fruition in the com­ing 18 — 36 months. The use of nuclear weapons in a con­flict would have cat­a­stroph­ic con­se­quences, includ­ing wide­spread death and destruc­tion, as well as long-term envi­ron­men­tal and health impacts.  The fear that some of the young and new­ly nuclear capa­ble coun­tries are a real fear based on the his­tor­i­cal, reli­gious, and ide­o­log­i­cal dif­fer­ences between our coun­tries and cit­i­zens.  

Nuclear weapons also play a sig­nif­i­cant role in deter­rence. The threat of mutu­al­ly assured destruc­tion has helped to pre­vent major con­flicts between nuclear pow­ers, but it has also cre­at­ed a dan­ger­ous sit­u­a­tion in which any mis­cal­cu­la­tion or mis­com­mu­ni­ca­tion could trig­ger a cat­a­stroph­ic event.

Historical Context of US Relations with Russia, China, and the Middle East

To under­stand the cur­rent ten­sions between the Unit­ed States and our rivals, it’s impor­tant to con­sid­er the his­tor­i­cal con­text of our rela­tions. The Unit­ed States has a long his­to­ry of rival­ry with Rus­sia, dat­ing back to the Cold War. While the rela­tion­ship between the two coun­tries thawed some­what after the fall of the Sovi­et Union, the cold war was nev­er real­ly dead, and ten­sions have risen in recent years, par­tic­u­lar­ly over issues like Russ­ian inter­fer­ence in the US elec­tion and the con­flict in Syr­ia.

The rela­tion­ship between the Unit­ed States and Chi­na has also been com­pli­cat­ed. While the two coun­tries have sig­nif­i­cant eco­nom­ic ties, they also have major ide­o­log­i­cal dif­fer­ences, par­tic­u­lar­ly when it comes to issues like human rights and democ­ra­cy. The US has also accused Chi­na of engag­ing in unfair trade prac­tices and steal­ing intel­lec­tu­al prop­er­ty.

The Mid­dle East has been a source of con­flict and insta­bil­i­ty for cen­turies, and the Unit­ed States has been heav­i­ly involved in the region for decades. The US has sup­port­ed a num­ber of regimes in the region, includ­ing Israel and Sau­di Ara­bia, while also engag­ing in mil­i­tary inter­ven­tions in coun­tries like Iraq and Afghanistan.

Recent Developments and Events Leading to Tensions

In recent years, a num­ber of events have con­tributed to the ris­ing ten­sions between the Unit­ed States and its rivals. Some of the most sig­nif­i­cant devel­op­ments include:

• Russ­ian inter­fer­ence in the 2016 US elec­tion
• The con­flict in Syr­ia and Rus­si­a’s sup­port for the Assad regime
• Chi­na’s increas­ing mil­i­tary and eco­nom­ic pow­er, par­tic­u­lar­ly in Asia
• The US-Chi­na trade war
• The US with­draw­al from the Iran nuclear deal
• The ongo­ing con­flict in Yemen and Sau­di Ara­bi­a’s involve­ment
• North Kore­a’s nuclear pro­gram and its efforts to nego­ti­ate with the US and South Korea.

These events have all con­tributed to a grow­ing sense of unease and insta­bil­i­ty, and have raised con­cerns about the poten­tial for con­flict.

Analysis of the Current State of Affairs

So, is the Unit­ed States cur­rent­ly on the brink of a nuclear war with Rus­sia, Chi­na, and the Mid­dle East? The answer is com­pli­cat­ed, and it’s this author’s belief the answer is, pos­si­bly. While the risk of con­flict is cer­tain­ly high­er than it has been in many years, there are still many fac­tors that could pre­vent a major esca­la­tion as well.

One of the most sig­nif­i­cant fac­tors is the pres­ence of inter­na­tion­al insti­tu­tions and agree­ments that are designed to pre­vent con­flict. The Unit­ed Nations, for exam­ple, has attempt­ed to play a key role in medi­at­ing con­flicts and pro­mot­ing diplo­ma­cy. The Iran nuclear deal, while pret­ty imper­fect, was also a sig­nif­i­cant step toward reduc­ing ten­sions in the Mid­dle East.

Anoth­er fac­tor is the fact that all of the major pow­ers involved have a vest­ed inter­est in avoid­ing a cat­a­stroph­ic con­flict. While there are cer­tain­ly hard­lin­ers in every coun­try who might push for war, the vast major­i­ty of peo­ple rec­og­nize the dev­as­tat­ing impact that such a con­flict would have.  Albeit, Rus­sia keeps tout­ing their tac­ti­cal nuclear weapons as an option.  It is my opin­ion this will have a neg­a­tive effect if Iran or the mid­dle east­ern coun­tries rac­ing for nuclear weapons attain their goal.

There are also many fac­tors that could con­tribute to an esca­la­tion of ten­sions. The rise of nation­al­ism and pop­ulism around the world has led to a more con­fronta­tion­al approach to for­eign pol­i­cy, and social media has made it eas­i­er for mis­in­for­ma­tion and pro­pa­gan­da to spread. You know, fake news, etc.  The ongo­ing con­flicts in Syr­ia and Yemen, as well as the sit­u­a­tion in North Korea, are also major sources of con­cern.

Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of a Nuclear War

The poten­tial sce­nar­ios and out­comes of a nuclear war are dif­fi­cult to pre­dict, but they are uni­form­ly cat­a­stroph­ic, in my hum­ble opin­ion. A nuclear war could or would result in the deaths of mil­lions of peo­ple, as well as wide­spread destruc­tion and long-term envi­ron­men­tal and health impacts. The eco­nom­ic and social con­se­quences would be dev­as­tat­ing, poten­tial­ly lead­ing to a glob­al depres­sion.

Even in the event of a lim­it­ed nuclear exchange, the impact would be severe. The use of tac­ti­cal nuclear weapons, for exam­ple, could result in sig­nif­i­cant civil­ian casu­al­ties and the con­t­a­m­i­na­tion of large areas of land, that could not be used for decades.  

What the US Government is Doing to Prevent a Nuclear War

The US gov­ern­ment has attempt­ed to take a num­ber of steps to pre­vent a nuclear war, includ­ing:

• Engag­ing in diplo­ma­cy and nego­ti­a­tions with its rivals (his­tor­i­cal­ly)
• Invest­ing in mis­sile defense sys­tems (Not recent­ly though)
• Pro­mot­ing inter­na­tion­al agree­ments and insti­tu­tions that are designed to pre­vent con­flict (With the excep­tion that Putin didn’t renew the nuclear arms treaty)
• Work­ing with allies to pro­mote region­al sta­bil­i­ty and secu­ri­ty. (Again, not so much, recent­ly…)

How­ev­er, there are also con­cerns that the Biden administration’s approach to for­eign pol­i­cy is con­tribut­ing to the ris­ing ten­sions. Some crit­ics argue that the US is engag­ing in a more con­fronta­tion­al approach to for­eign pol­i­cy, par­tic­u­lar­ly under the Trump admin­is­tra­tion, even though the con­cept of peace through strength was insti­tut­ed, it was inter­pret­ed dif­fer­ent­ly by our rivals. 

How the International Community is Responding to the Tensions

The inter­na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty has also tak­en a num­ber of steps to respond to the ris­ing ten­sions, includ­ing:

• Engag­ing in diplo­ma­cy and nego­ti­a­tions that are lack­lus­ter at best.
• Work­ing to reduce the risk of nuclear war through arms con­trol and dis­ar­ma­ment efforts, even though it feels like the oppo­site is occur­ring recent­ly.

How­ev­er, there are also con­cerns that the inter­na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty is not doing enough to address the under­ly­ing caus­es of the ten­sions, or pay­ing par­tic­u­lar­ly when it comes to issues like eco­nom­ic inequal­i­ty and human rights abus­es.

Personal Preparedness and What Individuals can do in Case of a Nuclear War

While the risk of a nuclear war is cer­tain­ly con­cern­ing, there are steps that indi­vid­u­als can take to pre­pare them­selves and their fam­i­lies in case of an emer­gency. These steps may include:

• Cre­at­ing an emer­gency plan for you and your fam­i­ly and stock­pil­ing nec­es­sary sup­plies (anoth­er blog post is com­ing on this, I can feel it)
• Stay­ing informed and up-to-date on the lat­est news and devel­op­ments
• Know­ing where to go and what to do in case of an emer­gency
• Being pre­pared to evac­u­ate “if nec­es­sary” before your area is affect­ed.  

It’s also impor­tant to remem­ber that the risk of a nuclear war is still rel­a­tive­ly low, and that there are many fac­tors that could pre­vent a major con­flict.

Final Thoughts and Conclusion

In con­clu­sion, the cur­rent geopo­lit­i­cal ten­sions between the Unit­ed States, Rus­sia, Chi­na, and the Mid­dle East are com­plex and mul­ti­fac­eted. While the risk of a nuclear war is cer­tain­ly high­er than it has been in many years, there are still many fac­tors that could pre­vent a major esca­la­tion. How­ev­er, it’s impor­tant for us all to stay informed and pre­pared in case of an emer­gency, and for gov­ern­ments and the inter­na­tion­al com­mu­ni­ty to take steps to address the under­ly­ing caus­es of the ten­sions. Call me pes­simistic, but I am not con­fi­dent that the can.  

Ulti­mate­ly, the fate of the world rests in the hands of those who are will­ing to work togeth­er to pro­mote peace, sta­bil­i­ty, and mutu­al under­stand­ing.

Make sure your mutu­al assis­tance group is ready to help each oth­er out.